As Russia grapples with the complexities of the war in Ukraine, a unique window of opportunity has opened up for China to extend its influence in Central Asia. However, the path forward is fraught with challenges, including historical mistrust, public concerns, and the growing interest of other global players. In this blog post, I’ll delve into the intricacies and security concerns surrounding China’s expanding presence in Central Asia, focusing on overcoming existing distrust and potential shifts away from democratic political development in the region to highlight Central Asia’s shifting dynamics.
Expanding Presence in Central Asia
China’s keen interest in broadening its footprint in Central Asia is palpable through initiatives like the Belt and Road project. Recent developments, such as Kazakhstan’s forthcoming mutual visa-free regime and Kyrgyzstan’s collaboration with China on a substantial trade and logistics hub, underscore tangible strides in bolstering economic ties and regional connectivity. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has diverted Russia’s attention and resources, offering China a strategic window to advance its projects in Central Asia with diminished scrutiny.
Shifting Security Perceptions
The security landscape in Central Asia has undergone a significant shift due to Russia’s deep involvement in Ukraine. Traditionally considered Russia’s “backyard,” Central Asia is now undergoing a reevaluation of its security dynamics. This recalibration allows international players, including China, the US, and the UK, to reassess their commitments to the region. The heightened interest from the US and the UK, evident in the C5+1 meeting and the UK Foreign Affairs Committee’s report, signals a geopolitical imperative to deepen engagement in Central Asia. Both the region and the international players have to revisit their relationships and reconsider their economic and political commitments.
However, we should move away from seeing the Central Asia region through the lens of imperial-style geopolitics, firmly based on colonialism and the notion that major international players can be interested in the region only on a quid pro quo basis. Now is the time to reconsider this approach of seeing Central Asia from the perspective of what it can offer the big powers, but instead, ask what the region wants. What does it need? What can be done to improve the security and interconnectedness of Central Asia? These are the goals the achievements of which will ultimately be beneficial for everyone involved.
Balancing Cooperation and National Concerns
Central Asian nations find themselves delicately manoeuvring between fostering cooperation with China, the US, and the UK to attract investments while averting domestic political discontent. Public apprehensions about China’s influence have manifested in protests, exemplified by Kazakhstan’s opposition to potential land deals with foreign investors. For China to emerge as a trusted partner, addressing these sensitivities and building trust within the region is paramount.
In addition, there are a few growing security concerns regarding China’s expanding presence in Central Asia: Digital Repression and Crackdown on Islam. With Russia’s diminished capacity to provide a security umbrella for Central Asia, two significant security concerns emerge concerning China’s presence. Firstly, there is the potential for a spillover of China’s digital repression environment, providing Central Asian leaders with an opportunity to suppress political opposition. While the Central Asian countries are undeniably searching for their national identity and political stability, a short-term solution for public discontent in the form of digital repression might be compelling for new regimes.
Secondly, China’s crackdown on Islam, visible in the removal of Islamic symbols and architecture, poses a threat to Central Asia’s cultural and religious fabric, impacting the region’s nationhood and nation-building endeavours. Islam is a fundamental building block of national and cultural identities in Central Asia and is interconnected with nation-building. Any potential of China pressuring the region into undesired changes in its religious set-up will impede China’s increasing its presence and influence, thus China needs to tread carefully on this front. Undeniably, China and Central Asia will still cooperate in fighting religious extremism and terrorism, but the Central Asian countries won’t be interested in persecuting Islam.
To conclude, as China seizes the opportunity to amplify its influence in Central Asia, a nuanced approach is essential to navigate historical distrust and address pressing security concerns. Balancing cooperation while understanding the region’s unique sensitivities will be pivotal for China to emerge as a trusted and embraced partner in the ever-evolving landscape of Central Asia. In order to understand Central Asia’s shifting dynamics, China needs to reconsider its approach to the region.
This blog post is based on my opening remarks at the webinar “China and Central Asia – A New Dependency” that took place on 13.12.2023. If you’d like to see more please find the recording here or click on the video below.