In this exploration, I delve into the enigmatic realm of Central Asia, examining the historical and geopolitical dynamics that shape its present trajectory. The West’s often superior stance towards the region, coloured by historical influences and geopolitical shifts, reflects a struggle to view Central Asian states—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—independently of Russian influence. Fueled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Central Asian countries navigate a delicate balance between historical ties with Russia and the repercussions of international sanctions. The article explores their openness to increased U.S. influence, the nuances of Chinese involvement, and the region’s resilience in negotiating a potential shift in the balance of power. Central Asia’s strategic importance, combined with a weakened Russia and renewed Western interest, prompts a reevaluation of China’s approach to maintaining influence in the region.
Central Asia has always been a somewhat mysterious and strange region, attracting attention from major international players, for example, in the form of rivalry between the British and Russian Empires in the 19th century known as the Great Game. A lot has changed since then, however, the commentary about, as well as the political attitude towards Central Asia from the West often resembles a somewhat superior stance. Many find it hard to see the new Central Asian states in their own right and not through the prism of Russian influence and the question of balancing power in Central Asia is often centred around Russia’s policies and actions. However, while Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are relatively young republics that were formed after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 but now they are on the way to developing their national identities and independent foreign policy approaches.
The process of finding their independent political footing for the Central Asian countries has been accelerated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, forcing the former Soviet republics to perform a delicate balancing act between keeping their strong historical, political, and economic ties with Russia and avoiding being hit with the international sanctions that were imposed on Russia following the invasion. The concerns of parallel import and re-import of goods have been widely discussed in the West and Central Asian states are seen as natural partners in crime by both Russia and the West.
While Central Asian countries have been vocal in upholding the sanctions imposed on Russia, they have also emphasised that the economic relations in the region are paramount for its development and should be prioritised. The C5+1 meeting in September 2023 showed that Central Asian countries are open to the idea of increasing the US’ influence in the region, especially in the spheres of green energy and economy. While Central Asian countries are also interested in cooperation in security and improving the situation in Afghanistan, starting with the energy and economy might be a more neutral approach to reconsidering the balance of power in the region without immediately upsetting other players such as Russia or China.
Chinese influence in the region remains a sensitive subject. Central Asia is to benefit from China’s Belt and Road initiative, a massive infrastructure project aiming to improve connectivity and trade in the region, as well as to promote China’s political and economic goals. As opposed to rather overt political and military Russian influence in the region, China prefers a more covert approach to power expansion. While the Central Asian countries welcome the infrastructure improvements, economy and trade contracts, and overall improving neighbour relations, the region remains suspicious of the Chinese soft power projection. For example, the proposed land reform that would have allowed foreigners to lease and buy land in Kazakhstan was met with significant public protests because people were worried that Chinese developers and farmers would buy land and push the Kazakhstani people out of these market segments. As a result, the leaders of the protests were jailed for five years under the illiberal Kazakhstani government, but the reform did not go through. On the contrary, in 2021 President Tokayev signed a law banning any lease or sale of land to foreigners, therefore quelling the protest tension that was on the rise again.
Central Asia should also be concerned with the crackdown on Islam in China. As the Financial Times reported with impressive visual evidence, the mosques and other Islamic architectural styles are being either modified or torn down under the umbrella of renovations and improvement to infrastructure. The revival of Islam in post-Soviet Central Asia is one of the facets of state nationhood and state building, and Central Asian people would not take the Chinese pressure on religion lightly. While the question of Xinjiang is often subtly omitted or avoided at the governmental level, Central Asian states will not be pleased if China tries to export its approach to Islam to its neighbours. We are yet to see if that would be the case, as the restrictions on Islam might remain a domestic political change for a while.
In addition, China’s relations with global powers, as well as its positioning on the international political stage are important to understand the way the Chinese power is perceived in the region. A potential improvement of the relations between China and the US, especially regarding trade and investment, as China is particularly interested in attracting foreign investments. This potential warming up between the two countries, combined with a rekindled interest of the US and UK in Central Asia might, at the very least, put Central Asia back on the map of the regions to which global powers pay more attention.
Understandably, there is no power vacuum in Central Asia to speak of, unlike in the immediate aftermath of the Soviet Union’s dissolution, when a rapid change in the region’s political set-up caused a massive amount of issues that needed immediate attention, such as the border delineation questions, fiscal and monetary needs, and many more. This time around, the region is in a much better position to negotiate a potential balance of power shift, especially if the war in Ukraine continues to drain Russia’s resources and political will. With a weakened Russia and more interest from the West, China might consider readjusting its approach to Central Asia to at least match the interest of the other players. In the unlikely case that China would not take into account the actions of other players in the region, it might find itself in a difficult position of putting much more political will and resources into supporting the existing level of influence that China enjoys in Central Asia.
In conclusion, Central Asia stands at a pivotal juncture, navigating complex geopolitical currents that shape its trajectory in the contemporary world. The region’s historical legacy, marked by the Great Game and subsequent Soviet influence, continues to cast shadows on its development. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has accelerated the Central Asian states’ quest for independent political footing, compelling a delicate balance between historical ties with Russia and the need to avoid international sanctions. The C5+1 meeting in September 2023 revealed the region’s openness to increased U.S. influence, particularly in green energy and the economy. Despite benefiting from China’s Belt and Road initiative, the region remains cautious of China’s covert power expansion, exemplified by public protests against proposed land reforms in Kazakhstan. Additionally, concerns over China’s crackdown on Islam and its global relations add layers to the intricate web of influences in Central Asia. With a weakened Russia and growing interest from the West, the region may witness a recalibration of power dynamics, prompting China to reconsider its approach. As global powers rekindle their interest, Central Asia remains a focal point for strategic considerations, emphasizing the region’s significance in the evolving geopolitical landscape.